Kotina G. Forecasting tax revenue to budget

The object of research is the system of tax forecasting, budget. The aim of the thesis is to deepen the theoretical foundations, development methodology, organizational and legal support tax forecasting in Ukraine. The methodological framework is a set of theses of general and special techniques and research methods, namely dialectical approach and systematic analysis, comparative analysis and synthesis, methods of system and structural analysis and economic-mathematical modeling (time series analysis, correlation and regression analysis, multivariate ranking, covariance-variance analysis), the method of logical modeling and design, historical method, the method of analogy and comparison. The practical significance of the results is to establish guidelines to deepen and improve forecasting of tax revenues, allowing to implement a systematic approach to this process. The novelty of the results lies in the theoretical and methodological principles of justification forecasting tax revenue budget in Ukraine and developing practical recommendations to improve it. Certain provisions and proposals formulated in dissertations, implemented in practice: when determining the basic organizational and methodological principles of budget planning, development and improvement of macromodels for analysis and forecasting performance of tax revenues by the Department of Taxation and Customs Policy of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine took into account proposals of the author to predict the level of tax revenues using integrated prediction based on a combination of predictive extrapolation , econometric modeling, correlation and regression analysis and multivariate ranking; the Department of Economic Analysis of State Tax Administration of Ukraine in predicting taxes and other charges were taken into account proposals by the use of multifactor models and econometric models of the dynamics in order to fully and timely formation of budget revenues; the main theoretical and methodological approaches and conclusions of dissertation research used in the learning process of the SHEE "Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University" in teaching subjects "Tax system", "Tax Management".