Grinchenko M. Models and information technology of forecasting of the processes of the macroeconomic systems development (on the example of Kharkiv region)

The object of research: the processes of development of regional macroeconomic system. The goal of the research: to increase the substantiation of results of forecasting of regional macroeconomic system's development processes by means of elaboration and research of models and information technology. The researching methods and tools: the fundamental statements of system analysis theory, the method of system dynamics, the methods of mathematical programming, regression and correlation analyses, and macroeconomic theory. Theoretical and practical results: the urgent scientific and practical problem has been solved, the applied information technology of forecasting of regional macroeconomic system's development processes has been elaborated, which can be integrated into the analytical information management system on the level of regional state administration. The originality of work is in elaboration of simulation model of macroeconomic system's development processes by means of modification of the model of world dynamics, which allowed to take into account the influence of internal and external environment on the development dynamics of the open region macroeconomic system and on the elaboration of the model of influence of state policy on the processes of region's development. The degree of deployment is confirmed by the certificate of Kharkiv region state administration about usage of the elaborated forecasting information technology in the project of design of the model of Kharkiv region territory organization. The materials of PhD thesis are used in the educational process of the department of strategic management of NTU "KhPI" in the following disciplines: "The basics of system analysis", "The elaboration of plans, projects and programs of social and economic objects' development", "The basics of information and management systems of projects management". The scope of usage in practice: the information analysis management systems on the level of regional state administrations for the substantiation and evaluation of the consequences of taken decisions.