Litvinov V. Risk assessment of motor-load stability loosing due to electrical equipment refusal in EPS subsystem

In the dissertation an actual scientific-technical problem of EPS subsystem modeling for the risk assessment of motor-load stability loosing due to equipment refusal in fuzzy-information conditions is solved. For the risk assessment is proposed the scheme of probabilistic-statistical modeling of EPS subsystem, which allows finding the probability of different faults in subsystem in the case of equipment refusal. Fuzzy-model of air circuit breaker technical conditions assessment and method of its time-interval refusal probability determination are proposed in thesis. For the asynchronous motor static stability assessment in the case of incomplete information about its parameters fuzzy-model is built. Created fuzzy-models are used in experimental-model investigations of EPS subsystems. The way of voltage regulation in EPS subsystem for decrease the risk level through the effective management of voltage regulation means is proposed. Obtained results may be used in the systems of itself requirements APP, TPP, HPP and in the supply systems of industrial enterprises.