Malyavina O. Рrognostication of determination the reliability of distribution heating networks pipelines by statistical methods

In dissertation work were obtained the following results: was performed analysis and selection of reliability indices of distribution heating networks pipelines, was developed methodological framework necessary for prognostication of reliability indices which includes procedures to identify averaged parameters of failures flow of heating networks pipelines for long - term operation period and choice of operation period interval in the prognostication of their reliability.According to data on damageability of distribution heating networks pipelines were obtained statistical models of parameters dependence of failures flow, probability of failure-free operation and uptimes on operation period, in general for heating network pipelines, as well as on pipelines assignment, their diameter and types of damage: was developed methodology and procedure for calculation of damages of pipelines and valves of respective diameters based on reliability index, depending on operation period, diameter and type of heating network pipelines damage, as well as the probability of failure-free operation of pipelines according to their assignment. Reliability of the obtained results found its' support in literary sources, as well as during validation of obtained statistical models at comparison of calculation and experimental data on damageability of pipelines