Olijnyk O. Forecasting the development of the stock market of Ukraine

The object of research is forecasting the development of the stock market of Ukraine. The purpose of research is theoretical substantiation, development of methodical positions and practical recommendations on the forecasting the development of the stock market as part of state regulation of investment processes in the economy of Ukraine. Methods of the research are systematic approach; logical analysis; analysis and synthesis; comparison; graphical method; induction, deduction and mathematical statistics. Methodical approach to the definition of the stock market state in long-term period that provides for the formation of scenarios of the stock market development on the basis of tendencies changes in the dynamics of gross domestic product, sales volumes of the industrial production, imports and the amount of cash in circulation; methodical approach to the forecasting of the trading volumes on the stock market that takes into account the change of bidding subjects economic activity indicators; methodical approach to substantiation of the composition of the factors influencing on the stock market state that provides for the gradual application of the method of expert evaluation, the method of analysis of hierarchies and correlation analysis are got further development. Justification of the procedure for determining the trends of changes in the stock market according to the indicators of the trades volume in securities and the stock index that combines quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the market; the definition of the notion of "forecasting the development of the stock market" that considers the notion as a component of the state regulation of the processes in the national economy are improved. Research results are used in the activities of the Ukrainian Society of Appraisers (certificate No 45 from 09.09.2011) and Main Department of Economy of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration (certificate No 574/1 from 05.11.2010).