Tkachenko I. Risk assessment and prevention of occupational accidents in transport public use

Object - processes of emergence of cases of operational injuries at the enterprises of public transport at coincidence in space and time of mistakes of at least two people; the purpose - forecasting of cases of operational injuries at the enterprises of transport of general use and justification of effective remedies and measures on their preventions; methods - scientific generalization and the analysis of basic researches, mathematical методі processings of the received results and an assessment of efficiency of the developed models, situation, and methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics, the theory of difficult systems, theories of indistinct plurals, theories of processing of indistinct information and the decision-making theory, mathematical modeling of processes; novelty - is received analytical dependence of probability of emergence of cases of operational injuries on time taking into account frequency and duration of appearance of the worker in a "dangerous" zone, frequencies of emergence and duration of existence of threat for the worker who has casually got to this zone; on the basis of experimental data it is established that statistical function of distribution of intervals of time between the accidents which have caused approach of a trauma or death of the worker at the enterprises of transport of public using, doesn't contradict exponential function of distribution of probabilities by criterion of a consent of Bartlett; the generalized mathematical model of a control system by production risks at the enterprises of transport of public using of Ukraine is offered. The developed Technique of a choice of optimum strategy of risk management of operational injuries for the purpose of their minimization which is accepted to use at the enterprises which are engaged in passenger traffic that is confirmed with the relevant act, is offered system of the prevention of excess of speed of movement of the vehicle which informs drivers on violation of the established high-speed mode on a route. Results of dissertation work can be used in transport branch for decrease in level of operational injuries, and also in educational process.