Balabai O. Probabilistic risk assessment of accidents on concrete gravity dams

The thesis addresses the development of a method of probabilistic risk assessment of accidents on concrete gravity dams. A method to determine the probability of achieving each boundary condition, which could occur in a concrete gravitational dam on rock foundation, was proposed and implemented. The method uses a method of statistical tests (Monte-Carlo) and allows determining a probability of strength loss of the dam body, it's contact section, and it's foundation, loss of the dam stability against overturning and shear. For the first time, a computer program "Determination of risk (probability) of accidents on a high gravitational concrete dam on rock foundation was compiled on the basis of the method developed using the software package MathCad". The presented method can be used in analysese of concrete gravity dams on rock foundations. Branch - construction.