Romanchuk K. Bayesian method for assessment of accident risks and safety control on waterworks

The thesis is devoted to developing methods for solving problems quantify the risk of accidents on the waterworks to assess and manage their safety. In the thesis within the scenario approach to forecasting technogenic accidents Bayesian method was used to quantify the risk of system failures on waterworks. It is shown that the scenario approach combined with Bayesian method allows evaluating the total (generalized) risk of losses from the system accident on hydropower because of arbitrary, including compatible, emergency events with different consequences, according to some model incompatible scenarios which form a complete group of events. A number of practical problems concerning to probabilistic forecasting atypical scenarios of system accidents at waterworks was solved namely those that related failures of automated devices of regulation, propagation the hydrodynamic accidents at cascades of pressure hydraulic structures, due to failures of spillway capacity of weirs. A new method for assessing the importance by Fussel - Wesley of emergency events on hydropower for their ranking by priority of safety was proposed, that can detect not only the most probable accident scenarios, but the scenarios burdened with the greatest risk of losses, and therefore priority factors of accidents can be better identified. The method of study countable set of emergency events considered in assessment of risk and selection of design events of extreme character in accordance with the principle the risk as low as reasonably practicable at waterworks was developed.