Posadska A. Information technology for decision-making solutions with risk accounting in network planning and management

The scientific and applied task of the dissertation work is the development of information technology for decision support with risk accounting in network planning and management. The object of the study is the process of risk assessment in decision-making in the systems of network planning and management. The subject of the research is methods, models and information technologies for risk-based decision making in network planning and management. The aim of the study is to improve the efficiency of network planning and management by developing methods, models and information technologies for support of risk-based decision-making. For the first time, the method of dynamic assessment of the risk of implementation of the work plan, based on the use of the simulation model of the network schedule and temporal formulas for calculating the probability of the fulfillment of the plan under given constraints, is developed. For the first time, the method of finding the optimal strategy for network planning and management, which uses the formal model of the statistical game, constructed from the results of simulation experiments, is proposed. The formal model of control E-networks by additional inclusion in the definition of the model of a given set of temporal logic formulas was further developed. Method of studying fuzzy cognitive maps by using aggregative simulation models to predict the change in system states under the influence of individual factors has been improved.