The theoretical and methodological framework for the statistical estimation, modeling and forecasting of energy independence was expounded in the dissertation. The essence of energy independence as an object of statistical research was considered. The role of energy complex in economy of Ukraine was characterized. On the basis of synthesis of various approaches it was defined that energy independence of the state as a component of energy security is a difficult social and economic category, which is characterized by a complex of statistical indicators, the level of independence of the state in carrying out the energy policy capable to resist to external and internal factors by intensive actions of development of economy without damage to society and national production in general. А complex of statistical indicators of energy independence including the efficiency of use of fuel and energy resources, volume of the involved investments, a condition of the material and technical equipment, import dependence from other countries, the volume of production and consumption of fuel and energy resources, etc. The main determinants that prevent the achievement of Ukraine's energy independence were identified and their essence was revealed. The discrepancy of consumption and production of fuel and energy resources (in 2017 Ukraine covers own needs for energy resources for 72%), deterioration in the relations with the Russian Federation, an imbalance between gas purchases and gradual loss of income from gas transit through the territory of Ukraine, uncertainty of prospects of production of energy resources in the country, considerable fluctuation of the world prices for energy resources, high energy intensity of production and low energy efficiency (in 2017 energy intensity in Ukraine was 0,2456 koe/$2015 at an average in Europe 0,0782 koe/$2015), slow transition of Ukraine to introduction of progressive production technologies, the use of renewable energy were distinguished from the main determinants. Conceptual model of statistical support of regulation of energy independence of Ukraine was developed, scientific research principles were substantiated (efficiency, scientific character, concreteness, effectiveness, continuity). The objective of statistical support of regulation of energy independence of Ukraine and the information resources for research of energy independence were substantiated. The system of statistical indicators of energy independence was constructed, in the structure of which new ones were proposed - "the level of import of energy resources to GDP" and "coefficient of a covering of consumption of energy resources by their production". Methods of analysis were determined, models of statistical research of energy independence were developed. The dynamics of production and consumption of the main energy resources in Ukraine, namely coal, natural gas, oil and electricity, was analyzed, which made it possible to identify the tendency of falling both production and consumption. The analysis of the structure of consumers of energy resources in Ukraine was carried out and it was revealed that the main consumers of energy in Ukraine is the industry and the population (in 2016 29% and 34,1% respectively). Structural changes in the consumption of energy resources based on the Ryabtsev integral coefficient were calculated. It was revealed that in 2016 in comparison with 2012 when the gas share in final consumption of energy resources has got critical value (36,4%), considerable changes in structure haven't happened (Ryabtsev coefficient was 7,5%). The extent of monopolization of Ukraine's energy resources markets was determined based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. It is revealed that the markets of energy resources of Ukraine have a concentration of several enterprises that threatens the healthy competition in the energy sector. In 2016 the gas market was the most monopolized in Ukraine (HHI = 5465 at minimum dangerous level 1800), the coal market was the least monopolized (HHI = 2352,7). The analysis of efficiency of use of energy resources was carried out in the dissertation and the unsatisfactory level of energy efficiency was justified. Аlthough the dynamics shows the increase in level of energy efficiency, it was revealed that such situation is caused by introduction of extensive development measures recently, among which it is possible to distinguish the compelled economy of energy resources for the population and economy, increase in tariffs for energy resources, etc., that leads to dissatisfaction from consumers concerning quality of provision of energy services. Based on the level of energy import to GDP the fact of inefficient use of energy resources in economy of Ukraine was confirmed, as gradual revival of economy of Ukraine in 2017 led to growth of import dependence on energy resources from other countries (growth of level of import to GDP from 8,4% in 2016 up to 10,4% in 2017). Methodical approach to integral assessment of energy independence of Ukraine and regions was proposed on base of multidimensional average method. It includes the standardization procedure of the raw data based on reference values, calculation of integral assessments of energy independence, evaluation of the weights with help of the analytic hierarchy process, computing of the integral coefficient of energy independence using weighted arithmetic mean formula. The dynamics of the calculated integral coefficient of energy independence of Ukraine was analyzed. It is revealed that in 2007-2016 the integral estimation of energy independence tends to grow by an average of 6,7% per year, and integrated coefficients of energy independence of regions of Ukraine were defined. On this basis groups of regions were identified by the integral indicator of energy independence, which allowed to develop management solutions to increase the level of energy independence in each group of regions. The tightness of the correlation between the energy consumption and other economic indicators was estimated. Pairwise and multiple regression models of energy resources consumption with the most essential factors were constructed. The influence of dollar exchange rate (r_(yx_1 )=-0,904), capital investments (r_(yx_2 )=-0,65), the index of physical volume of GDP (r_(yx_3 )=0,623) and production of energy resources (r_(yx_4 )=0,793) on volumes of consumption of energy resources was estimated. Among the given indicators by the constructed standardized multiple-factor equation it was defined that the dollar exchange rate and the index of physical volume of GDP have the greatest influence on volumes of consumption of energy resources. The factor analysis of gas import to Ukraine based on the constructed Dupont index functional model was made. This made it possible to establish a negative impact of coefficient of a ratio of gas production to GDP on gas import volumes (under the influence of this factor in 2017, compared to 2013, gas import grew by 3 billion cubic meters). The ratio of consumption of gas and its production had the most positive influence (the decrease in gas import due to this factor was 9,6 billion cubic meters). Based on trend, adaptive and autoregression models the tendencies of the main indicators of energy saving and energy efficiency were revealed. Perspective estimates of the energy intensity of Ukraine's GDP and the volume of energy consumption in Ukraine in general and also separately by industry and the population were calculated. It is proved that further both the energy intensity of GDP, and consumption of energy resources will tend to fall, however such results should to be achieved by introduction of effective measures without damage to production and society. The potential of energy use from renewable sources was revealed, among which the most perspective for Ukraine are biofuel and waste, hydropower, wind and solar energy. By means of models the prospects of achievement of the goals of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine in the development of renewable energy sources until 2020 were calculated. It is established that the increase in Ukraine's energy independence is correlated with decrease in gas imports and replacement with alternative fuels. Based on model of quadratic function, the minimum value of gas import which is necessary for ensuring functioning of the economy and the population was calculated. This point was the gas import in the amount of 43,1 billion cubic meters. Further reduction of gas import will require its replacement by alternative fuels and increase in the share of energy from alternative sources in the consumption of fuel and energy resources.
