The purpose of the dissertation research is to increase the accuracy of the assessment of the impact of the range of allergenic plants on the health of people through the development of methods and information technology for the analysis of this effect to reduce the uncertainty of its components.
The scientific novelty of the completed dissertation research is defined:
1. The spatial-temporal information model of the influence of allergenic pollen areas on the health of people was improved by increasing the complexity of taking into account the characteristics of the sources and objects of this influence, normalized according to the standard rules for relational databases, which allowed to formalize the types of uncertainty of these characteristics. The use of cylindrical coordinate system during data formalization has been proposed, which allowed to optimize this information model.
2. For the first time a method of spatial-temporal estimation of possible locations and parameters of stationary in the space of allergenic areas is proposed based on the data of only one aerobic monitoring post under uncertainty conditions, which differs from the existing, first, using spline approximation of typical pollen generation models, which allows to process a minimum number of (2–3) consecutive measurements in a constant wind direction, and secondly, using the «deformability» coefficient of the schedule of these measurements for the calculation the growth of the uncertainty of the data over time from the moment of generation, due to the variability of the direction of the wind in the way of transferring the pollen from the range to the post, and thirdly, the criterion for selecting the most reliable options for the possible location of pollen ranges based on the analysis of the placement of spline approximation to the experimental points, which allows reduce the uncertainty of the determination of the coordinates and the parameters of the ranges.
3. For the first time the information technology of spatial-temporal estimation of influence of areas of allergenic plants on the state of health of people at a given point of stay, which differs from the existing complex of methods for reducing the uncertainty of components of this influence, has been developed, which allows to increase the accuracy of the assessment of the risk of pollutant exposure to a person in a given the point at a given time, as well as the accuracy of allergy predictions and the validity of making decisions to destroy or reduce the size of the identified areas of allergenic plants.
The practical value of the results of the work is as follows:
1. A typical software and information support for the realization of the proposed methods and information technology has been created and successfully tested on real data. Adapted to the frequency of observations in Ukraine and approximated the data of typical curves of the intensity of pollen production of ambergris during the day after sunrise, depending on the relative humidity of air. The obtained dependencies have been successfully tested for data on the post of the EAM in Vinnytsia for 2013-2014. In particular, the proposed method has confirmed the known and identified new possible areas for the location of ragweed in the city of Vinnytsia. The revealed patterns will be interesting and useful both for authorities and specialists in the medical industry, biologists, ecologists, and for the general population.
2. Three variants of effective application of the developed information technology are proposed and characterized: construction of a map of pollution by allergenic pollen for a given date and time, analysis of the influence of existing habitats of allergenic plants on people from the point of view of the priority of destroying these habitats for limited human and financial resources, human searches the optimal route of they stay at a given time and date.
3. Improved model accuracy. It is proved that the developed method of determining the parameters of the range of allergenic plants is more accurate than the calculations according to the well-known model of SILAM at low wind velocities v: at v = 1 m / s – 22 times, at v = 2 m / s – at 5,5 times, at v = 3 m / s – 2,5 times, at v = 4 m / s – 1,4 times.
The results of the work have been implemented into the work of the Department of Phytosanitary Safety of the Main Department of the State Committee for Procurement of Consumer Goods in Vinnitsa Region, in the educational process and scientific activity of the departments of National Pirogov Memorial Medical University, in the educational process of specialty 126 - «Information systems and technologies» (educational program «Information technology for data and image analysis») of Vinnytsia National Technical University.
