Khazan P. Statistical estimation of renewable energy sources development in Ukraine

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Candidate of Sciences (CSc)

State registration number

0419U001750

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.00.10 - Статистика

28-11-2019

Specialized Academic Board

Д 26.870.01

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Auditing

Essay

The dissertation aims to justify theoretical and methodological bases for statistical estimation of renewable energy sources (RES) development in Ukraine and develop scientific and practical recommendations for the implementation. The structure of statistical estimation was substantiated, indicators classification for statistical estimation of RES development were designed and the dependencies between them are calculated. Flexibility of usage of renewable energy sources for individual management, localization of energy production and consumption are fundamentally important factors of a positive impact on the global changes in the state energy structure. In 2017, the share of RES in the overall structure of electricity generation in Ukraine, excluding large hydropower plants, was 1.48?%. Ukraine has an international commitment to reach 11?% in RES usage by 2020, which under favourable conditions may reach 13.2?%. Based on the analysis of different approaches to the definition of the object of statistical study, the concept of RES development as a set of irreversible regular progressive changes in the scientific, technological, industrial, legislative and informational aspects of generation of such energy produced by natural resources is grounded. Such changes occur naturally, are carefully controlled and can be used without the risk of their exhaustion during the existence of civilization on the Earth. The components of RES development are substantiated, namely: increase of capacities and their networks, increase of profitability of projects, improvement of organisational conditions for their implementation, improvement of legal, information and statistical support, increase of investments in RES, improvement of RES technical and operational parameters, reduction of negative effects of RES, to the environment when using RES and producing their components, reducing the cost of RES. As a result of research of methodological approaches to the development of indicators for assessment of RES development, the directions for harmonisation of Ukrainian and European statistical estimation systems are proposed. It is shown that the magnitude of the annual solar radiation by four orders of magnitude exceeds the value of the total world energy demand and two orders of magnitude of the world energy reserves of fossil fuels (uranium, gas, oil and coal). The components of RES development were substantiated, the exhaustive list of RES was defined in accordance with the international classification. Based on analysis of international, European and national regulatory framework related to RES development, Ukrainian state policy directions were determined. Its structure includes statistical study, political and economic mechanisms. RES development strategies were designed and implemented based on formation and deepening of the legal framework and proposals for RES dynamic centralized data collection. It was proved that there is correlation between RES energy production, RES total capacity and average GDP per capita. On the example of solar power, total quarterly production, efficiency and RES potential utilization for industrial and private sector was calculated. It was proved that efficiency and RES potential utilization depend on climate, total electricity consumption, total electricity production and area of Ukraine's regions. Cluster, factor and correlation-regression analyses were performed; these methods are proved suitable for building energy indicators system. Three clusters were identified: RES development indicators, energy complex development and RES development impact indicators within the existing energy sector. It is estimated that Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions are the leaders in terms of the RES development impact on the existing energy structure. Analysing European energy sector, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Sweden, Turkey are considered to be in the cluster of the highest values according to their RES development indicators. Germany is leading in terms on RES development impact onto the existing energy sector by a significant margin compared to other European countries. In the framework of factor analysis, the most important RES development factors have been identified and analysed. It was proved that the following components - overall RES energy production, overall RES capacity and final energy consumption - have the highest total dispersion equalling to 90.6?%. The integral indicator of RES development estimation and its calculation method is substantiated. The structure of the indicator in defined. It includes economic, environmental and social groups of indicators; their elements were calculated. Calculation methods of corresponding influence coefficients on unified integral index was substantiated. Functional connection level among elements of groups was identified. The scale of desirability for a comprehensive assessment of RES development was created. It proves that the state of RES development in Ukraine is at an adequate level, while the dynamics of such development is steadily positive.

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