The dissertation discusses the scientific and methodical approaches to estimating budget revenues losses from the national economy shadowing. The proposed estimation of national economy shadowing take into accounts such factors as structure of non-formal employment, the aggregate tax burden in national economy, gross value added of one employee. These approaches allow performing better forecasts for filling the budgets of all levels, planning strategic and tactical measures for the implementation of the state policy of shadow economy reduction. It is proposed methodical principles for determining the key drivers of the shadow economy formation by constructing an economic and mathematical model, which measures the dependence of the shadow economy sector from the population welfare, unemployment, tax burden, energy efficiency, prices of the main energy resources, the effectiveness of small and large privatization, and the country's membership in the EU. An empirical study of transition economies has determined priority areas concentration of efforts for implementing the state policy of shadow economy reduction in Ukraine. It is proposed scientific and methodological approaches for assessing the shadow economy levels on the basis of the modified method of loss-making enterprises, which, unlike existing ones, allows us to determine the reliable range (the difference between the maximum and minimum values) of the budget tax revenue losses due to the hidden profitability of the loss-making enterprises. The dissertation discusses the theoretical bases and practical tools for identifying the most relevant measures of realization of the state economic policy directed to the minimization of the environmental consequences of the economic activity shadowing, which, unlike the existing approaches considers the formalizing the environmental taxes rates dependence, the volumes of state investments aimed to environmental protection and the characteristics of the institutional environment on the level ecological and economic damage from national economy shadowing. It was improved the definition of "shadow economy" concept as a system of uncontrolled and unregulated relations, informal and illegal economic relations between state regulatory bodies, producers, employees, consumers and intermediaries, which are realized consciously and/or indirectly, in relation to production,
distribution, consumption and exchange goods and services, resulting in economic, social and environmental damage to the state and society. This approach differs from the existing due to expansion of the effects scope of the national economy shadowing, specifying the role and motives of the participants, as well as the forms of relevant economic relations. The dissertation proposes methodological basis for assessing the economic levels of environmental pollution caused by shadow sector, which, unlike the existing approaches, was carried out with account to the environmental damages and shadow economy levels of the corresponding economic sector, as well as the amount of unpaid taxes due to the shadow employment. The application of the modified method of loss-making enterprises for assessing the level of shadow economy has showed that during 2000–2017 in Ukraine the largest share of shadow economy was in the mining and processing industry (on average it fluctuated around 46 % and 39 % of gross output); the medium levels were in construction, wholesale and retail industries (about 35 %), in transport (33 %), the lowest levels were at agriculture (22 %). It was found that foreign direct investments are positively affecting the decrease of shadow economy and 10 % growth in foreign direct investments shrinks the shadow economy by 0,4 %. It is also described the effectiveness of existing economic instruments in the direction of shadow economy sector reduction. To reduce the negative influence shadow economy it is needed to improve the efficiency of the tax bodies in collecting taxes and increase sanctions for tax evasion.
Key words: national economy, shadow economy, fiscal policy, shadow GDP, competitiveness of the economy, ecological and economic damage, state economic policy, shadow economy reduction.
