Starychenko Y. Forecasting the level of food security of Ukraine

The thesis is devoted to the development and improvement of theoretical and methodological basics and practical recommendations for predicting and increasing the level of food security of Ukraine. In the line of the aforementioned tasks existing approaches to defining the concept of “food security” and core components of its provision were systematized. The system of food security indicators accepted in international practice was determined, and those that it is expedient to introduce when forming the system of its monitoring in domestic practice were highlighted. The place of forecasting in the system of national economy management and food supply of the population was considered. The analysis of existing methods and models for assessing and predicting the parameters of the food system was carried out. On the basis of the adaptation of the essence of macroeconomic forecasting to the system of food supply criteria, the definition of the concept of prediction of food security indicators was given. An integrated approach for the state food security level forecasting and evaluating measures for its improvement were proposed, and an algorithm for building an information-analytical complex for predicting the country's food security was structured. In order to develop forecasting models, a method for non-structural forecasting of food security indicators was proposed. The study assessed the current state of the country's food security and the agricultural resource base, which forms the food supply of the population. An integral index of food security was developed, which allowed obtaining a general quantitative assessment of its condition and conducting an assessment of the risks of food insecurity. A balance model of land resources has been created, which makes it possible to evaluate the connection between industries producing basic foodstuffs. On the basis of the model, the values of direct and total land capacity were determined, which enabled to estimate the value of land resources attraction for the production of certain food groups. Proposed optimization modification of the developed model made it possible to determine the food potential of agriculture to ensure an adequate level of food security in accordance with intensive and extensive options for the development of agricultural production. The role of the state in the context of food security was determined and the existing mechanisms of state regulation were analyzed. A system for food security monitoring was proposed. It will contribute to the provision of state and local governments with complete and comprehensive information on the current state and development trends of the food system, and serve as the basis for developing effective strategic and tactical actions to achieve scientifically based criteria for food security of the population. As a result of the study, short-term forecasts (prediction period – 2019–2022) of food security indicators were calculated, which allowed to assess more accurately the nature of changes in the condition of food security and identify dangerous trends, reduce the level of uncertainty of its prospective states and be able to make effective decisions to resolve it. The value of the integral indicator of food security was predicted and the risk of food hazard was determined. The algorithm for calculating the elasticity coefficients of demand for food products by price and income with their subsequent evaluation was determined. The calculated elasticity coefficients made it possible to apply the scenario approach of estimating a combination of changes in incomes and food prices to achieve an optimal level of consumption. The main directions and ways of forming a scientifically based policy of ensuring the state food security were substantiated as a result of the study. The main instruments for the provision of domestic food aid at the state level were identified and a mechanism for its implementation was proposed. A model for the economic assessment of domestic food aid based on price and income elasticity coefficients and the partial equilibrium model of the food market was created. This made it possible to solve the problem of justifying the size of the targeted food subsidy in order to achieve the minimum and recommended consumption rates in terms of income strata. Key words: food security, macroeconomic forecasting, elasticity coefficient, monitoring system, indicators of food security, food potential, targeted subsidy, domestic food aid.