Vashchenko V. Forecasting the Development of the State Reserve in the Long Term

Based on the results of the study, the concept of «forecasting» is clearly substantiated in combination with the author's interpretation of the state reserve, which gives grounds to assert about the correctly chosen architectonics of the study, the need for comprehensive support and rational combination of all links in the management structure of the state reserve, taking into account the best world and European experience. In the process of a detailed analysis of financial indicators of improving the use of the general fund of the State Budget of Ukraine, it was concluded that due to the modernization carried out by enterprises – responsible custodians of the material assets of the state reserve, the efficiency of the State Reserve of Ukraine has increased. The paper highlights the essence of forecasting the development of the state reserve, as a set of conditions necessary to minimize internal and external threats to the development of the state, and developed a model for the creation of minimum stocks of crude oil and oil products in Ukraine as one of the important elements of the country's energy independence, which provides for the formation of minimum reserves of oil and oil products in accordance with the requirements Directive 2009/119/EU.