Chayka V. Ecological substantion of prognosis of spread of the ultimate pests of the field crops in the agrocenoses of Ukraine

Objects - natural populations and laboratory cultures of Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say), Ostrinia nubilalis (Hbn), Phthorimaea operculella (Zell), (Scotia segetum Schiff.), complex of Acrididae species from the south of Steppe zone of Ukraine, dominant pests species from Polissia (Boreal forests) zone of Ukraine.Methods - the standard methods of faunistic researches in entomology and the quantitative account of insects, ecology of populations, protection of plants - the field and laboratory researches, the advanced and original biophysical research methods of insects reactions on information environmental chemical signals, logic and computer simulation of insect populations dynamics.Novelty - presence of genetically predetermined long-term cycles of reproductive potential, a survival and migratory activity which create conditions of mass reproduction of insects, and also influence of environmenal-economic forces on phytosanitary conditions formation that has allowed to deepen scientific maintenance ofphytosanitary forecasts is proved. It is proved that mass reproduction and distribution of the basic field cultures pests registered in last decade has taken place owing to deducing the big areas of arable lands from agricultural processing, global climate warming and a condition of solar activity.It is proved also, that on a modern level of science development, reliable predictors as announcers for drawing up phytosanitary forecasts can serve: the retrospective analysis of long-term dynamics of pest quantities, statistics of mass reproduction of different populations in view of solar activity periodic changes. The methodology of pheromone monitoring of Lepidoptera, which is a basis for creation of the advanced systems for instrumental quantative account of harmful insects methods is developed for the first time for Ukraine.Results - substantive provisions of the quantity dynamics of of harmful insects theory are profound, the concept of modern organization of monitoring system and forecast is developed and allows to raise the reliability of phytosanitary forecasts. The algorithm for the nocuity of a winter wheat main pests complex operative forecast and modern systems of monitoring are developed (?declarative? patent of Ukraine No 59739 A. Way of Acrididae species monitoring. А01М5//00).Field - an agriculture, monitoring and the forecast.