Chernenko P. Hierarchical multivariable electric load forecasting of interconnected power system

Object of research: electrical load of the interconnected electrical power systems on different hierarchical levels. The purpose of research: further improving of the theory, development of a new and improving existent methods and mathematical models of electrical loads of interconnected power systems for operative, short-term and medial-term forecasting with the object to improve the quality of forecasting the electrical load of interconnected electrical power systems. Methods of research: methods of the theory of probability, the theory of graphs, method of autoregressive and moving average, adaptive filtrations, spectral analyses, group method of data handling, methods of optimizations, Kalman filter, method of main components, experimental design techniques. Theoretical and practical results: The theory of electrical load forecasting of interconnected power system concerning hierarchical approach to mathematical models, forecasting types classifications and verifications of forecasting result. The advanced multilevel multivariable mathematical models of operative short- and medium- term forecasting and improved real models using basic data available in interconnected power system are developed on its base. A complex approach to forecasting problems including basic data effective authentication and statistically correct verification of forecasting results on such three characteristics as accuracy, stability and validity is performed. The obtained scientific and practical results improve forecasting quality, cost saving and reliability of automatic system of interconnected electric power system dispatch control. Degree of introduction: are used in «Azglavenergo», UDC of «Ural», UDC of «Severo-Zapad», EPS of «Kievenergo», NEC «Ukrenergo». Sphere of use: electrical power systems.