Shevchenko H. The methodology of forecasting equilibrated development of recreation in the management system of national economy

In the dissertation the object of research is the processes of forecasting the equilibrated development of recreation in the system of management of the economy of Ukraine. The objective of the work is the theoretical-methodological substantiation, deepening of conceptual positions and development of the scientific and practical recommendations for forecasting the equilibrated development of recreation in the system of management of the national economy. The following research methods were used: comparative analysis, abstract-logical analysis, theoretical game method, simulation modeling method, dynamic programming method, scenario analysis method, expert method, correlation-regression analysis. The concept of forecasting equilibrated development of recreation in the management system of national economy has been formed, which consists in prediction the result of change in the indicators of functioning of the national economy based on the application of foresight approach by creating equilibrium states of the recreational sector on the basis of socially-oriented regulatory policy in combination with instruments of market self-regulation of recreational services in the direction of improving the quality of life of the population in terms of health restoration for labor productivity growth. The dynamically-equilibrated approach to forecasting the development of recreation with the use of methods of economic- mathematical modeling was developed, which involves the analysis of socio-economic relations taking into account the use of factors of natural, financial and human forms of recreational capital, adjusted with consideration of sectoral and territorial factor, which correlate with the indicators of the dynamics of the index of gross domestic product, in order to ensure decision-making by regulatory authorities using the matrix of indicators of predictive effect and comparative effectiveness in accordance with the scenarios of recreational development.