Tytarenko V. Methodology of forecast studies in academic religious studies.

In the dissertation an attempt was made to establish a new direction of practical religious studies, which is defined as the forecasting of religious processes. The comprehensive philosophical and religious studies analysis of the predictive potential of Religious Studies was done, based on the methodology of systematic and interdisciplinary approach. It enables to define the basic concepts and also to reveal the methodological peculiarities of forecasting in religious studies and the possible scope. The integrative approach enabled the using of discourse analysis, synergetic paradigm, prognostics, special achievements in expert analysis (as a component of prognostics), philosophy and sociology of religion, political science, social and political forecasting, innovation management etc. This made it possible to define the religious situation as the entity manifestation of the whole complex of religious phenomenas in their interrelation and interdependence in the context of the existing social environment. Such an approach enabled the creation of a conceptual matrix of the religious situation as a complex organization. The model of the conceptual matrix of the religious situation as a complex self-organized system was created in order to revealing the benefits of a deeper understanding of the unity and diversity of the world, and the general mechanisms of the emergence and development of a "novelty". The following levels of the conceptual matrix of the religious situation were distinguished: a micro-level consisting of a number of "fast", short-existing variables (represented by everyday religious consciousness, religious activity, etc.); macro-level (conceptual religious consciousness) – the long-term collective variable elements, which are called parameters of the order; mega-level, which consists of external phenomenon’s actively influenced on the development of the system (the so-called control parameters that include global factors and local determinants). The religious situation as a self-organized system is a set of elements that, as an object of management, have the ability to move from one state to another. This is suggested that in practical religious studies predictions should be developed in order to increase the efficiency of taken decisions, to avoid undesirable in areas of the religious influence on the social, political, spiritual processes, etc.