Bondarchuk A. Models and methods for increasing the accuracy of calculating the electric loading of civilian objects using graphic, macromodeling and fractal properties

The dissertation is devoted to theoretical synthesis and decision of an important scientific and practical problem in the field of science and technology concerning the study of processes and precise determination of electrical load in power supply systems of civilian objects. The problem solving was accomplished by developing methods and mathematical models for increasing the accuracy of the determination and prediction of electric load and clarification of normative indicators for the design of the power supply systems of civilian objects for civilian use, which will create conditions for energy resource savings, capital costs for the construction and operation of the power supply systems, and reduce the negative impact on the environment. According to the results of the study, a conceptually new approach was developed and a method for calculating the electric loading of civilian objects by graphically synthesizing their load dynamics using simulation based on the theory of splines, which allowed 1.5–3.5 times to increase the 39 accuracy of its definition, compared with calculation by current normative indicators, which is experimentally confirmed on real objects. The self-determination of the structure of the electrical load of civilian objects was proved and the fractal principle of its formation was established on the basis of the R/S analysis of retrospective information. It made it possible to estimate numerically the presence of long-term memory and its depth, trend stability for the identification of time intervals of the time series. Based on the improvement of the method of forecasting the dynamics of electrical loading of civil objects by mathematical macromodeling, which differs from the existing use of discrete macromodels, much better accuracy of its forecast for other methods was obtained. In order to increase the accuracy of the determination of the electric load of civilian objects, a method for modeling the electric load of residential buildings and its forecasting is developed by graphic synthesis of oscillograms of electric receivers, the results of which have been experimentally confirmed on real objects. A method for determining the specific electric load on the dwelling of multi-storey houses was created based on the model of the mathematical expectation of averaged functions which, unlike the current normative documents, allowed increasing the accuracy of its calculation. On the basis of the improved method of estimating the influence of higher harmonics generated by nonlinear of electric receivers, the sources of renewable energy on electric, thermal load of current-carrying parts by simulating processes in the electric network, it was possible to prevent critical situations of their overheating. A technique for forecasting the energy, economic and environmental efficiency of using hybrid solar collectors for the energy supply of multi-storey residential buildings has been developed, which differs from other ones by considering the prices in the energy market and determining the discounted profit and payback period of the investment project.