Zolkover A. De-shadowing of Ukraine's economy in the context of ensuring macroeconomic stability

The dissertation is devoted to the solution of the scientific problem of development of theoretical and methodological bases of de-shadowing of Ukraine’s economy in the context of maintenance of its macroeconomic stability. It have been further developed logical-structural scheme of macroeconomic stability ensuring of the Ukrainian economy on the basis of de-shadowing of the economy, which in contrast to the existing ones is based on the results of structuring the existing research, reflects the interrelationships and interdependence of macroeconomic stability elements, parameters of their quantitative assessment identified on benchmarking analysis and threats of macroeconomic stability violations, is characterized by structural and functional connection of the directions of macroeconomic stability ensuring in terms of channels of de-shadowing. It is improved methodological basis for determining the allowable volume of investment operations with signs of fictitiousness, which in contrast to the existing is based on current and retrospective targets of levels of de-shadowing of the economy and the macroeconomic stability of the country and implemented using game theory tools (Brown-Robin iteration method). It is improved methodological basis for substantiation of causal links between direct tax revenues and levels of shadow economy and macroeconomic stability, which differs from existing ones by considering of bilateral influence between the studied processes, as well as formalization of time lag of change of shadow economy and country macroeconomic stability in response to the growing tax burden on corporate income tax, personal income tax and social security contributions. It is improved methodology for studying the impact of the efficiency of the tax system at the level of shadow economy and country macroeconomic stability, which differs from the existing by comprehensive consideration of institutional, administrative and social performance of fiscal policy, and integrated into a single indicator based on the additive convolution and the Fishburne formula. It is developed methodological bases of substantiation of influence of parameters of financial sector development on shadow economy and macroeconomic stability that differs from existing by combination of regression and distributive-lag modelling on panel data. It is deepened methodological background of clarification the role of financial digital innovations (investment, insurance and banking) in the context of changing the scale of the shadow economy, which differs from the existing by integration of regression analysis on panel data and the Hausman test. It is developed methodology for studying the impact of the level of shadow economy on the social development, which considered based on the results of testing on cointegration and stationarity the impact of explicit and latent determinants of their development, allow to build response function of social development indicators on shadowing processes based on the autoregressive model with a distributed lag. It is improved methodological basis of the scenario modelling of the critically level of e-government services in the country, which in contrast to the existing ones is carried out by using the step-by-step exclusion method for a pessimistic scenario and combing regression for an optimistic scenario.