In today's conditions, the state task of intensive economic and social development of the country and its participation in international integration is being actively pursued. The role of the person in this is given to the transport industry, namely the sea and annual transportation. Therefore, the transition to the investment and innovation stage of development is a logical way to improve the efficiency of any tasks.
At this stage, the water transport of Ukraine as a whole satisfies only the basic needs of the economy and the population in transportation. The water transport complex is a complex structure, which is known to cover a number of tasks and functions. It should be emphasized that the level of safety, efficiency indicators of passenger and cargo transportation, other important properties do not meet modern requirements. According to experts, particular attention should be paid to the safety problems of navigation, the reliability of technical facilities and the task of automating the control of the technical state of water transport vehicles in various conditions of operation. Research in the direction of automation are relevant in connection with the complexity of both the technique itself and the process of its exploitation. It is known that more than 70% of emergencies due to the so-called "human factor".
A comparative analysis of the accident rate of water resources indicates a decrease in such situations, but this does not reduce the relevance of scientific research in the field of increasing the efficiency and reliability through automation. The analysis of foreign and domestic experience in the implementation of automation systems for monitoring the technical condition of water transport vehicles indicates that they can significantly improve their efficiency and quality of operation.
Thus, despite the development of the transport industry in Ukraine, water transport in particular, the scientific task of improving existing and developing new models and methods for automation of the technical condition of water transport facilities in various conditions of exploitation, the solution of this problem and a dissertation work is relevant.
Scientific novelty of the obtained results is that:
the model of automated control of the technical state of water transport vehicles is improved, which, unlike the existing, is based on Markov processes, the Runge-Kutta method of numerical solution of the system of Kolmogorov differential equations and a priori information about the intensity of transitions from state to state. Using the software implementation of the model significantly improves the efficiency due to the ergonomics of the interface and reduce the number of transactions;
for the first time a heuristic model of the operational determination of the technical condition of water transport vehicles was developed in the absence of reliable statistical information, the distinctive feature of which is the use in describing the process of changing the state of the chain of causation links and the production model for the transition operator; this allows you to significantly reduce computing costs and time to determine the state;
the method of automation of control of the technical state of water transport means is improved on the basis of an intellectual model of equalization of dynamic rows, which, unlike existing ones, uses the mathematically formalized principles of geestart theory and the idea of minimizing the sum of squares of deviations of formed points of the first and second order. The application of the method allows to provide compensation for measurement errors with an acceptable difference index of 0.9-5%.
The practical realization of the results obtained in the work is expedient in mathematical and software provision as a component of the automation technology of the ship's technical condition monitoring process in the Integrated Bridge System. Application of the proposed models and methods can improve the quality of monitoring up to 12%. At the same time, according to the results of mathematical modeling, it is possible to increase the probability of a non-stop shipping navigation to 8-10% due to implementation in practice.
