The dissertation is devoted to solving the scientific problem of debt security in the system of state economic security, as well as its theoretical bases development, improvement of the existing scientific and methodical approaches, and its practical provisions.
The research summarizes the existing scientific studies of «state debt security» concept. As a result, it is suggested to identify it as an integral part of the state financial and economic security, characterized by optimal level and structure of public debt with considering the cost of its servicing to ensure the state`s financial system stability and its financial sovereignty, maintaining an adequate solvency level and credit rating. In contrast to other approaches, the proposed definition is based on a structural, systemic, functional, managerial and risk-oriented standpoint, which allows to consider all components of state debt security to ensure transparency and efficiency of its management.
The author suggests considering «state debt security management» concept as a set of appropriate measures taken by the state and its authorized bodies to coordinate, organize, evaluate, monitor, plan, forecast, develop effective methods and levers regarding maintaining debt burden at a safe level and reduce the servicing costs of external debt in order to ensure the financial and economic security of the state.
It is outlined that debt security is an integral part of state economic security. In order to prove this a structural and logical scheme has been offered, which introduces place and role of debt security in the system of state economic security and the separates its subsystems, principles, functions, objects and entities. Eventually, it allows us to outline the vector of transformation of the current state debt security system in order to converge it with international principles.
The dissertation provides a list of key indicators of debt security, and their threshold values in Ukraine in comparison with the world practice. Besides, scientific and methodological approach to determining the state debt security based on quantitative assessment of relevant indicators is substantiated, which, in contrast to existing ones, allows to identify significant potential threats and causes of instability, predict their future dynamics and calculate integrated debt security index.
A scientific and methodological approach to short- and medium-term forecasting of public debt includes the autoregressive model (ARMA) developed and proposed for practical use. It helps identifying the persistence level of public debt by calculating the Hearst exponent and conducting an R/S analysis. The provided in the dissertation model allows to determine the dynamics of public debt of Ukraine and get its forecast values for the next three years.
The study provides a scientific and methodological bases for assessing the impact of indicators of economic development on Ukraine`s public debt based on a system of regression equations with distributed lag (Almon model). The proposed scientific and methodological approach will solve two main tasks: 1) reflection of crucial relationships in the economy, which directly or indirectly involves public debt; 2) providing the ability to forecast external debt in future periods and determine its impact on key macroeconomic indicators and processes.
It is determined that monitoring as a system of measures becomes more important for ensuring the state debt security as it might increase the level of financial and, accordingly, state’s economic security. The dissertation confirms the main methodological principles of monitoring the effectiveness of state debt security management by conducting a generalized assessment of compliance of national practice of disclosure on the debt sector in Ukraine with international principles of state economic security, which increases the effectiveness of the debt security system.
