The dissertation is devoted to solving the urgent scientific task of improving the theoretical and methodological foundations of managing economic fluctuations under the influence of monetary policy.
Based on the evolutionary analysis of views on the content of the concept of “economic fluctuations” within the main scientific schools, it is proved that the growing level of integration of financial markets, the increasing frequency of exogenous shocks and the growing macroeconomic volatility are accompanied by a growing scientific interest in the concept of economic fluctuations.
An analysis of the content and conceptual approaches to understanding economic fluctuations and the peculiarities of their manifestation has allowed the author to systematize scientific approaches to understanding the specifics of the emergence and forms of manifestation of economic fluctuations by the role of monetary policy, technology, aggregate demand, and government institutions, and to distinguish between the classical and Keynesian approaches, the theory of real business cycles, monetary, Austrian, and integrated approaches.
One of the characteristic features of economic fluctuations is the lack of an unambiguous understanding of their role in the country's economic development. On the one hand, they pose significant challenges to ensuring and maintaining the stability of the economic system, causing periods of recession, rising unemployment, inflationary pressures and financial instability, and on the other hand, they serve to adapt the economic system to changes in the internal and external environment, facilitating the redistribution of resources, the development of innovations and the adaptation of the economic system to new conditions.
The criterion base for classifying economic fluctuations by causal and deterministic features (cyclical, seasonal, structural), time horizon (short-, medium-, and long-term), amplitude of fluctuations (micro-, meso-, and macro-cycles), causes of occurrence (endogenous and exogenous), geographical coverage (local, regional, and global), and consequences of impact (economic impulses, economic shocks, and combined fluctuations) has been improved.
Based on the analysis of the sensitivity of monetary policy indicators to economic fluctuations, the author proves that monetary policy instruments are significantly dependent on economic instability. The most sensitive to the shocks of GDP and the consumer expenditure per capita index are the interest rates on loans to residents in the national currency. It is proved that an increase in labor force participation leads to an increase in economic activity in the country, reduces the risk of loan default, and is accompanied by a decrease in the loan rate. An increase in the stock market index, consumer spending, and industrial production leads to a decrease in the lending rate. Thus, economic growth, accompanied by an increase in industrial production and higher consumer spending, allows banks to reduce lending rates.
A comparative analysis of monetary regimes in the management of economic fluctuations is carried out, their advantages and disadvantages are identified, and their impact on economic fluctuations is substantiated. The influence of inflation targeting on economic fluctuations is studied, its advantages as a basic strategy of stabilization policy are determined. It is concluded that inflation targeting helps to reduce uncertainty in financial markets and increase confidence in the monetary policy of the central bank, allows for more effective management of expectations of economic agents, and facilitates the adaptation of the system to the conditions of different types of economies. The impact of adapting inflation targeting to the conditions of different types of economies (developed markets, transition economies) on its effectiveness and the possibility of integrating other monetary policy instruments, such as foreign exchange interventions or interest rate management, is investigated.
The tools for monetary regulation of economic fluctuations have been improved to take into account the nature, duration, and type of fluctuations. This will help optimize the impact of monetary policy on the economic cycle, ensure resilience to seasonal fluctuations, and respond in a timely manner to structural changes and shock fluctuations. Thus, in the phases of recovery, recession, or depression, the key measures should be to control inflation, stimulate economic activity, or counteract deflationary processes by regulating interest rates, reserve requirements, and open market operations.
