Kotsupal O. Accounting support of financial forecasting at the enterprise

The dissertation is a scientific study of the theoretical foundations and practice of accounting support for financial forecasting in the conditions of martial law. The author analyzes the essence of financial forecasting and its importance in strategic management and ensuring sustainable development of the enterprise. The study is based on the substantiation of the relationship and mutual influence of financial forecasting, planning, budgeting and accounting. This approach will help to increase the efficiency of integration of accounting and forecasting functions into the strategic management system, ensuring the validity of management decisions and long-term sustainability of the enterprise. The paper emphasizes that financial forecasting creates the foundation for the development of evidence-based plans, while strategic planning defines the long-term goals of the enterprise, and budgeting details the resources to achieve them. The principles of going concern and capital preservation form the basis of the concept of the life cycle of an entity focused on ensuring sustainable growth of enterprise value in the long term. The ability of an enterprise to operate on a continuous basis is assessed on the grounds of forecast information obtained as a result of modeling various scenarios of its activities. The paper improves the instruments for assessing the ability of an enterprise to continue as a going concern and preserve capital through forecasting. The results of the study emphasize the importance of considering accounting concepts when developing business strategies that ensure the preservation of capital and financial stability of the enterprise even in the face of significant external challenges, such as a pandemic or military operations. The author analyzes the importance of integrated information systems, such as ERP (enterprise resource planning), which provide a single database for the enterprise, increase management transparency, minimize data duplication, and simplify access to up-to-date information. Effective financial forecasting should primarily rely on relevant inputs and take into account business drivers as a complement to traditional financial indicators. In turn, determining the development prospects is impossible without understanding the current financial position of the company and the scale of financial operations. Therefore, accounting is the basis of information support for management decision-making, and therefore the problem of reliability and relevance of accounting information for financial forecasting purposes is becoming increasingly important, which will improve the quality and reliability of strategic management decisions. The creation of an effective model of accounting support for the strategic development of an enterprise not only supports management decision-making, but also allows for modeling and forecasting their effectiveness. The paper proposes a multilevel model of accounting support for financial forecasting, which includes approaches to the formation and composition of accounting support for financial forecasting as a strategically oriented integrated system. This model involves the use of both internal financial and non-financial information and external data, including economic forecasts, market research, and macroeconomic indicators. The author considers the factors of institutional influence on accounting support, which form the macro-, meso- and micro-environment, in the context of financial forecasting and management decision-making. Analyzing the external environment enables enterprises to take into account changes in legislation, exchange rates, inflation rates, and market conditions. In the course of the study, the methodological instruments for financial forecasting and a flexible system of risk-oriented budgeting were improved, including the adaptation of traditional methods to meet the needs of financial statement forecasting in light of the current challenges of economic instability caused by military operations. The author proposes approaches based on the integration of scenario analysis, dynamic forecasting models, and qualitative assessments of financial risks. The forecasting model should combine the evaluation of risk drivers with the key components of the «base» financial forecast scenario. To assess the impact of war-related risks, a baseline scenario and three alternative scenarios were calculated: conflict escalation, loss of territory, and ceasefire. The formation of reliable accounting support for financial forecasting will create a relevant information base that enhances the applied potential of financial forecasting tools.