Dmytriv O. Forecasting evaluation of development of atomic power stations territories and observation zones (exemplified by Rivne APS)

Geological and hydrogeological conditions have been analyzed of the studied region. Theoretical research has been carried out of the impact of the change of hydrogeological and geological conditions emerging from consequences of technogenic loading on the vertical shifts of structures and objects of APS. Particular attention is devoted to the development of exogenetic geological processes, especially to Karst, suffosion, flooding end under flooding. For the first time the forecasting evaluation has been performed of the development of APS territory at the present stage and at the stage of selecting the land plot for constructing this object with the help of indistinct mathematical modelling of real situations under the conditions of indeterminancy. The forecasting assessment is the basis for the proper development of the APS territory with the provision for measures which will decrease the risk of the rise of potential emergency situations depending on the influence of changed natural factors and will improve the ecological state of the environment. It has shown numerically the negative impact of various factors both separately and totally on the APS territory and structures state, has revealed shortcoming in the present deployment of the industrial site, has shown the optimal way for the further development of this object. The observation zone has been investigated of the atomic power station (30-km zone) as to the radiation pollution and the presence of soils capable to actively retain and transfer radionuclides into vegetation. This territory has been prognostically assessed with the help of the method of indistinct relation of advantage to multiple alternatives. On the basis of this evaluation the complex of measures has been proposed concerning the management of radioactively polluted lands. Theoretical provisions of the thesis have been tested by carrying out the assessment as the basis of the optimization of the development of the development of the territory of Rivne atomic power station and of observation zone.