Musiyenko I. The long-term forecasting of normative loads on highways

Object of research: "person-vehicle-traffic enviroment" system. The purpose of research: The development of the method of long-term forecasting for normative loads on highways. Methods of research: historical method, system analysis methods, methods of mathematical statistics. Equipment: PC. Theoretical and practical results: The mathematical model of long-term forecasting of "person-vehicle-traffic enviroment" system in closed condition has been developed. The technique, the algorithm and the text of the program for PC of long-term forecasting of normative characteristics of system have been designed. The forecast of the normative loads on highways till 2030 has been developed. Novelly of results: The regularities of developments "person-vehicle-traffic enviroment" system in closed condition has been determined. The new approach of estimation of condition of system using analysis its maximum entropy has been proposed. Degree of introduction: The developed methods have been introduced for improvementof design solutions on a highway of Belgorod-Akhtyrka in research institute ZAO "Kharkovsky Promtransproekt". Field of application: designing and reconstruction of highways, construction of principal new cargo cars.