Sanko Y. The long-term prognostication of tram passenger transportation considering the external environmental impact (on the example of KhME "Miskelektrotrans")

Dissertation is devoted to the development of the scientific bases of the environmental influence on the prognosticated volumes of tram passenger transportation. To accomplish this task: the scientific approaches to the system state determination and the prognostication of passenger transportation considering have been analyzed; the mathematical model of component parameters transition probability determination on the urban passenger transport system from the initial to the final state in the enclosed position under the influence of external environmental changes has been elaborated; the assessment of the model relevance has been carried out; the weight index of the system elements on the basis of the expert evaluation has been defined; the obtained results have allowed to get the adequate value of the component parameters transition probability on the urban passenger transport system from the initial to the final state; the influence of the external changes functions and the weight index on the system components of the tram passenger transportation volume has been investigated; the prognostication of the tram passenger transportation volume has been worked out.