Taranukha E. Administrative decision acceptance risk estimation (ATP example)

The purpose is development ekonomiko mathematical model and methodical providing of evaluation of the most influential risks of receiving less of the expected results. Research Ob''ektom is the process of acceptance of administrative decision in relation to diminishing of risk of receiving less of the expected result. In dissertation the investigational was used such methods: abstractly logical and analytical, methods of mathematical statistics and expert method, method of mathematical design. The scientific novelty of the got results consists in such: methodical bases of evaluation of risks are first offered in their system co-operation on the basis of computer-integrated cost index of VAR, essence of which is determined by the size of the maximal combined losses from influence of negative factors on the value of the contract, expected during the certain period of time with the set probability, and also calculation of the proper index, which allows real-time to execute the complex estimation of the system of risks of producer of transport services and customers, identify the most risk positions and take measures suppression in relation to limitation of possible losses software. The order of determination of terms of payment of contract is improved due to introduction of additional procedure of evaluation of rizikovosti realization of the proper agreement on the basis of the developed scale of risk of receiving less expected. Gradations of limits of financial firmness of enterprise are improved due to introduction in place of existing traditional (absolute, normal, unsteady, critical, crisis) adapted to the modern terms: normal, possible, critical with determination of self-reactance descriptions of the proper limits. Got subsequent development essence of category "risk", which determines probability of not only offensive of unfavorable consequences but also possibility of receipt of additional effect, on the basis of what self-reactance descriptions of forming of administrative risk were complemented due to the selection of factors of sub''ektivnogo character (propensity to the risk, experience, psychology), which are determining for making decision, the consequences of realization of which are not predictable. Got subsequent development of evaluation of risk degree due to introduction of index of relative rizikovosti, that is determined attitude of sum of rejections potentially of possible result toward planned. Application of this index allows to accept an administrative decision in relation to subsequent work with a customer within the limits of planned dokhidnosti. Research results were inculcated VAT of "ATP-1" of Kyiv (there is an act of introduction from 14.09.2010). The offered method can be used in activity transport logistic companies which are engaged in freight transportations.