Solovyov S. Mathematical models for projecting the effectiveness of rotavirus vaccines in Ukraine

The thesis is devoted to the projecting of genotype-specific, prophylactic and preventive effectiveness of rotavirus vaccines in Ukraine. It was studied the features of the circulation of rotaviruses among children of different age groups, patients with acute intestinal infections in Ukraine and provided molecular genetic monitoring of rotaviruses, circulating in Ukraine. It was shown that rotaviruses play a leading role in the structure of acute intestinal infections in young children in Ukraine. It was projected genotype-specific effectiveness of rotavirus vaccines in Ukraine with methods of distributive and multiplicative synthesis, based on molecular genetic monitoring with a mean value - 0,804 and describes that the maximum reduction in severe cases of rotavirus infection among children under five years is 80,4±0,8%. It was built the mathematical model of projecting the prophylactic vaccine effectiveness among children under five years in Ukraine, which showed that, in average, among children under five years the number of diseases reduce to 29,4 ± 0,3% for 5 years since vaccination is expected. It was improved mathematical model of the incidence of rotavirus infection in Ukraine, taking into account the effect of vaccination of rotavirus vaccine, according to morbidity of rotavirus infection: it was expected maximum reduction of the first and subsequent cases of disease to 48,4±9%. Key words: rotavirus infection, rotavirus vaccines, vaccine effectiveness, the mathematical model.