Chepurna T. The regional space-time prediction of the mudflows hazard using GIS technology

Thesis is devoted to the geological problem of the space-time regional prediction of mudflows hazard. Using GIS technologies selected relevant and representative complex of significant influence spatial and time factors, that suggested to use in the regional prediction of mudflows hazard. Geological, geomorphological, technological, climatic, landscape factors have been selected as spatial mudflow factors. Spatial analysis is based on detection of the regular connection of spatial factor characteristics with spatial distribution of the mudflow centers. The time long-term prediction of the mudflows activity is based on the hypothesis of the regular reiteration of natural processes. Heliophysical, seismic, meteorological, hydrogeological factors have been selected as time mudflow factors. The prognostic geoinformatics model of mudflow hazard to year of the next peak of the mudflows activity has been developed.