Falko V. Ecological risk projective estimate of pinpoint emission source

This thesis deals with the solution of the new and urgent task in the ecological safety sphere, that is the ecological risk projective estimate of contaminants emission into the atmosphere from the pinpoint emission source and its' impact towards the human. The possibility of the highest possible single boundary allowed contaminants concentrations appears on the score of unexpected changes of the source designed parameters and environment characteristics, i.e. inciting factors, while the source accident-free functioning. This possibility is characterized by the occurrence probability and defines the ecological risk considered. The task under consideration is distinguished and stated through stochastic and systems analysis usage. Various stochastic mathematical models of varied difficulty, defining the contamination concentrations and ecological risk fields within the source region, were devised for the task solution usage on different enterprise projection stages. The linearization and statistical test methods (Monte-Carlo) were used in those models. The ecological risk projective estimate of pinpoint contaminants emission normally functioning source methodology was elaborated in accordance with the existing projection stages. The elaborated methodology was used for the task solutions in Environmental Impact Assessment sections for real objective projects. The derived results were used for economic contractual issues implementation and educational process.