Panukhnyk R. Modeling of electoral choice in conditions of developing democracy.

The thesis is devoted to the problem of modeling citizens' electoral preferences in the period of transformation to democracy. Methodical principles of electoral choice modeling analysis were justified. Existing models explaining electoral preferences were researched and classified. The problems that arise while applying classical models of electoral choice in unstable democracies were defined. Alternative, contextual model of electoral choice to explain voting behavior in developing democracies was proposed. Specific factors affecting electoral choice under conditions of developing democracy were determined. Using system interdisciplinary approach based on principles of neo institutionalism and the theory of contextual effects, the model of electoral choice, which the author considers appropriate to name contextual. Proposed model determines the dependence of the electoral choice in new democracies as on the traditional factors of electoral preferences (on which emphasizes classical models) and contextual effects that explain electoral choice in terms of transformation to democracy. This paper substantiates the thesis that using the developed model one can determine the optimal value of variables for analysis of electoral preferences in developing democracies.