Slutska O. Estimation of corporate bonds issuers default risk

Українська версія

Thesis for the degree of Candidate of Sciences (CSc)

State registration number

0413U000569

Applicant for

Specialization

  • 08.00.08 - Гроші, фінанси і кредит

07-02-2013

Specialized Academic Board

К 64.055.02

Essay

Research object: process of risks estimation on the corporate bonds market; the purpose of the research: development of theoretical positions, methodical approaches and practical recommendations to the estimation of corporate bonds issuers’ default risk in the investing process on the stock market; research methods and equipment: analysis and synthesis, logic generalization, semantic analysis, comparative matching, the method of graphs, correlation and regression analysis, multivariate factor analysis, the method of fuzzy logic, classification trees, neural networks, Markov chains; the theoretical and practical results: a methodical approach to modelling the financial covenants of corporate bonds issue on the Ukrainian stock market through substantiation of a set of financial indices and determining their critical values; methodical approach to estimation of corporate bonds issuers’ default risk, which takes into account the dynamics of financial indicators such as borrower’s efficiency, capital structure, liquidity and solvency, as well as the general condition of the financial market, which makes it possible to determine the issuer’s ability to pay for its debt on time; methodical support of financial position estimation of corporate bonds issuers, which is based on the use of indicators such as operating cash flow on investment capital as a source of debt payment; structuring of the corporate bond investment risks, a feature of which is a construction of risks hierarchy and selection of the default risk as key one; the definition of corporate bonds issuer’s default, the difference of which is consideration of time criteria and events that are evidence of the bond issuer default; the scales and the criteria for estimation of corporate bonds issuer’s efficiency, capital structure, liquidity and solvency, which take into account the effect of random factors in estimation of current financial position by using the theory of fuzzy logic, which increases the validity of financial analysis of the borrowers; subject and extent of implementation: results are introduced in practical activity of the Eastern Territorial Administration of the National Commission on Securities and Stock Market, Assets Management Company «Avantazh Capital Management» LTD, «Rurik» LTD, Kharkov National University of Economics at teaching of discipline «Financial Engineering»; sphere of use: information support for decision-making when investing in corporate bonds, preparation of issue Prospectus, the definition of classes and credit ratings of bond issuers, educational process.

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