Potapenko A. The development of the prediction model of transportation systems evolution with regard to their components variability

The thesis aims to solve the scientific and applied problem of determining the prediction values of transportation systems components with regard to their variability. The probabilistic prediction model of the transportation system evolution regarding its components variability has been offered. In the study presented the evolution of the transport system and its components under the closed mode is under consideration. With the model offered the transportation system components for the period up to 2020 have been obtained which have been used in the strategic planning of investments into the transportation system development. The options of transportation systems development have been analised.