Lopatiev P. Forecasting economic development of the cement industry of Ukraine

Dissertation is devoted to generalization, substantiation and enhancement of theoretical and methodological tools of forecasting economic development of the cement industry of Ukraine in the conditions of political instability. Theoretical bases of branch forecasting are developed. The conceptual model of forecasting economic development of the cement industry of Ukraine is enhanced, that allowed scientifically to ground the methodical, informative and organizational providing the forecasting process. The methodical approach to forecasting economic development of the cement industry of Ukraine was developed, including the methods of preparation to forecasting, methodology of forecasting economic development of the cement industry of Ukraine, methods taking into account political risks in forecasting the cement industry development, methodology of choice directions for the cement industry regulation. The mathematical model forecasting the cement industry development taking into account the political risks is developed that allows to obtain forecasting results after the optimistic, baseline and pessimistic scenarios of industry development, and on this basis to work out the state regulation directions for its sustainable development. The state regulation mechanism of the cement industry of Ukraine is developed that is based on forecasting results and assists to industry sustainable development in the conditions of political instability of Ukraine.