Svichynskyi S. The Forming of Trip Length Distribution Models for City Population in order to Determine Demand for Public Transport

The research object is the forming of city population demand for travelling by public transport. The research task is to determine the demand for travelling by public transport on the base of work trip length distribution. The methods used in the thesis are as follows: the formalization, idealization, hypothetical and inductive methods were used to develop the mechanism of formation of trip length distribution; analytical modelling in VISUM software was used to obtain the characteristics of public transport networks (PTN); system approach, analysis and synthesis were used to study the composition and structure of the PTN; regularities in the spatial characteristics of the city PTN were determined using the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics; when studying the distribution of city population trip lengths the experimental method was used; trip length distribution for Kharkiv was obtained using observations and measurements; estimation of accuracy of calculated trip matrices was performed using simulation modelling. Results obtained in the thesis are the contribution to the theory of modelling of public transport systems at the expense of the justified use of trip length distribution during the formation of the most probable states of work trip matrix. The practical results of the thesis include the developed approach and the software to form the work trip matrix on the base of trip length distribution for city population. Scientific novelty of the received results is that for the first time the trip length distribution is determined on the base of spatial location of public transport stops that in contrast with known approaches has allowed to theoretically justify the possibility of describing the work trip length distribution using Gamma-distribution as well as it was developed new scientific approach to determine demand for travelling on the basis of trip length distribution that in contrast with existing approaches allow to take into account the factual trip length distribution parameters during forming the work trip matrix. The results of the thesis are introduced during formation of rational variant of Kirovohrad route network, during development of the measures to correct the route network plan of Sumy public transport and during modelling the demand for public transport services in Lviv that is confirmed by the acts of introduction. The received results can be used by local authorities, scientists and transport planning experts during modelling and developing the public transport systems, during estimation of proposals for changes in city transport systems, their improvement or development.