Marynin I. Grape frost damage risks on Black Sea territory

Object - the risks of grapes damage and wine grapes selection NSC "Institute of wine and wine-making named after V.E. Tairov"; Aim - assessment of risks damaging frost grapes in the Northern Black Sea region; Methods - open-air and numerical experiment, mathematical statistics, probability theory and mathematical modeling; Results - established patterns of temporal variability in the level of minimum temperatures of 50-200 cm air layer and their gradient magnitudes for different types of weather; estimated conditions of frost event by separate inter-annual period, the peculiarities of their formation and identified trends over 65 years; developed a model of the risk of damaging frost grapes and assessed the possible economic losses; a frost event trend change conditions in relation to climate change over the next 50 years on the results of the simulation has been made; Novelty - suggested approaches for risk assessment of different frost damage grapes ripening on the example of the North-Western Black Sea region; the degree of implementation - implemented; Scope - Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, Hydrometeorological Center of the Black and Azov seas, agricultural organizations, inventory and insurance agencies.