The thesis highlights the essence of the exchange rate and the scientific approach to forecasting exchange rate regimes studied by their classification, analysis and synthesis of their essential properties, grounded theoretical and methodological approaches to the formation of the exchange rate in the context of the overall economic equilibrium. The paper proposed consensus-classification of exchange rate regimes, which combines existing de jure and de facto regimes. Likewise, the study of methodological principles of the exchange rate formation and forecasting were investigated. Exchange rate is determined on the base of its internal and external valuation. It is established that the exchange rate is a foreign exchange value of the currency, which is based on purchasing power and external utility. Macroeconomic indicators are classified, which are factors the volatility of the exchange rate by providing the following groups: economic growth, employment, consumer outlook, business outlook, housing, inflation, credit, financial and banking statistics and verbal intervention, foreign sector, budget, financial markets. The selection of the object targeting based on critical analysis of inflation targeting regime is explained on the basis of non-monetary sources (oligopolistic and monopolistic pricing). It allows to target the exchange rate of the national currency by rule of ,,export commodity standard” and select the targeting objects according to the phases of the business cycle. There is reviewed the internal and external (specific) currency exchange rate factors. It is proved that the revaluation of the base currency quotations (US dollar) causes a decline in world prices for export products and growth of numerous macroeconomic imbalances in the national economic system. The author has established that the specific factors of currency exchange rate are closely related to the functioning of the public sector. Developed study selection and prerequisites of the functioning bipolar exchange rate regimes by identifying relationships and dependencies between the exchange rate of the currency and inflation. It helps reveal the deployment of devaluation and inflation spiral, as well as revaluation and inflation spiral. Concretized ways of improving communication strategies and verbal interventions of the National Bank of Ukraine, forecasting of exchange rate, which based on the analysis of purchasing power parity real exchange rate, bond’s spreads and interest-rate differentials that allow to track the correlations of nominal exchange rate with the fundamental economic conditions and assess the speculative (short-term) and investment (longterm) components of the currency market dynamics.
