Gnatiuk N. The projections of air temperature and precipitation in Ukraine in the 21st century.

The thesis focuses on future trends in regional climate in Ukraine in the 21st century based on Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation (CMIP3) and Regional Climate (ENSEMBLES) Models for different emission scenarios: IPCC SRES B1, A2, and A1B. Monthly, annual and seasonal changes of air temperature and precipitation are analyzed for all territory of Ukraine and its five selected regions for three future periods: 2011-2030, 2031-2050, 2081-2100 relatively modern climate 1991-2010 based on model ensembles. The projections of monthly air temperature and precipitation in the 21st century are obtained on a regular grid of 25 x 25 km by using an additive or a multiplicative method with calculated changes relatively modern climate of ensemble model data and instrumental observations. In order to investigate how current and future climate change impacts on local hydrothermal regime in Ukraine, Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient and two climate aridity index: De Martonne Aridity Index and Pinna Combinative Index were determined based on obtained 2-m temperature and precipitation projections.