Korduba I. Iрrediction of tornadoes and earthquakes impact consequences influence on ecological safety of radioactively contaminated water bodies.

In the dissertation the international experience of radioactively contaminated water bodies management was systematized. In order to secure ecological safety the scientifically justified water level must be sustained. The most ecologically dangerous natural phenomenon for such water bodies were shown to be tornadoes and earthquakes. A new merged catalogue was created containing 6298 tornado records. Tornado observation frequency was mapped and was shown to be quasi-homogeneous in all Ukraine territory with average frequency of 20.6 and 4.3 tornadoes per area of 1x1 deg. per century for all kinds of atmospheric whirls and for tornadoes of EF1+ intensity, correspondingly. Moreover, tornadoes with EF4+ intensity were shown to be possible in Ukraine. Based on satellite imagery 20 forest destructions by tornadoes were discovered in Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts. Main parameters of 18 previously unregistered tornadoes that caused these forest destructions were determined. In low-populated regions of Ukraine 90%-95% tornadoes with EF1+ intensities were shown to be unregistered in official statistics and international databases. The deterministic prognosis of wave parameters capable of overflowing water over barrier dam ridge was made based on numerical modeling of separate tornado, earthquake and simultaneous tornado and earthquake impact. Synergetic amplification of the wave dynamic parameters was found. With current level of water 4.5-7 m below the barrier dam ridge, the water cannot overflow the dam in case of F1-F3 tornado impact. Keywords: ecological safety, water body, radioactive substances, tornado, earthquake, modeling, synergy, barrier dam, water overflow.