Shmarin S. Prediction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Disposal Sites in Ukraine

Thesis is devoted to solving the actual scientific issue on disclosure of the influencing factor features on GHG generation processes from municipal solid waste disposal sites as a scientific basis for improving the methodology for predicting its emissions in Ukraine. Analytical dependence of methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites is proposed, which unlike the known ones, takes into account regional climate features of Ukraine, contents and methane emission generation rate constants for seven biodegradable Carbon-containing components (paper and cardboard, textile, food waste, wood, garden and park waste, personal hygiene (diapers), rubber and leather). Based on it and developed methodology methane emissions from municipal solid waste disposal sites were estimated for 1990–2014 years. According to results of the estimations the annual volumes of the methane emissions gradually increased from 162.0 to 217.8 thousand tonnes, which is an equivalent to negative impact of carbon dioxide from 4.05 to 5.45 million tons. Also methane emissions from municipal solid waste disposal sites were predicted up to 2050 based on different scenarios on national waste management system and demographic changes in the country. Results of the thesis were implemented by the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Ukraine through using them while compiling Ukraine’s GHG Inventory submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat in 2015–2018 years. This has led to decreasing of the uncertainty level for the methane emissions from municipal solid waste disposal sites by 10–15 %.