Bachyshyna L. Ecological and economic principles of transformation of Ukraine’s grain production in the climate change context

Theoretical and methodical principles on the controlled transformation of the Ukrainian grain industry are deepened in the thesis. In purpose to achieve the maximum ecological and economic effect of cultivating grain crops in new natural and climatic conditions that arose as a result of global climate change and large-scale degradation of soils of Ukraine, practical recommendations were developed. An overview of the state of land resources and soil-climatic differences in the regions of Ukraine is considered. The analysis of the grain crop production structure and the temporary periodization of the grain industry in Ukraine, taking into account the climate change, is given. The main issues of the concepts "natural-climatic system" and "transformation of grain production" are described. Due to conducted analysis, it is defined, that the land fund of Ukraine is characterized by a rather high productive potential of arable land in relation to grain crops. The analysis of the dynamic of soil condition in Ukraine is done. It is defined that soils loss their fertility on the whole territory of the country at a rapid rate. The land plowing is the highest in the world. This results the environmental sustainability of agro-industrial plants and negatively influence on grain production. The study of influence of climatic factors on the yield of grain crops was conducted. The predictive models of grain yield were developed which take into account the influence of climate on grain production. The ecological and economic principles of soil fertility reproduction and directions of optimal transformation of grain production in Ukraine were determined. The methodological approach of the classification of Ukrainian regions according to the type of weather and climatic dependence on grain crop yields is improved. The tools of forecasting of grain crop yields is improved too. The autoregressive models are an effective tool of yields forecasting for central and steppe regions. The extrapolation models of linear trend and models constructed using fuzzy logic methods are more effective for the western regions. The predicted models of crop yields are optimal in terms of quality and accuracy for models of this class and can be used for medium-term forecasting of grain yields. It is defined that the grain gross production in Ukraine has sufficient volumes to provide both domestic needs and the export potential. Ukraine is among the leading grain producers and exporters and is one of the guarantors of world food security. The primary tools of profit increasing of grain industry are determined; among them the updation of varietal base, application of new technologies for land cultivation, use of high-performance machinery, high-precision and super-economical agricultural technologies for growing of grain crops, forecast of the grain industry indicators in Ukraine and some regions. The basis for the transformation of the grain industry should be the program of measures of sustainable land use. The program provides the application of environmental technologies for the land cultivation and the crops protection, the use of new drought-resistant grain varieties, the renoration of eroded lands, observance of crop rotation, reliable prediction of the main indicators of grain industry, expansion of the organic production sector, expansion of the grain processing sector, control and the government support. The important tool to improve the economic efficiency and environmental sustainability of grain production should be the synergistic interaction of the crop and livestock industries. The geoinformation modeling of the Ukrainian regional grain production structure in the climate change context, which reduces risks and improves the adaptability of grain production to existing climatic transformations, is proposed.