Severin V. Development method of estimation of dependence of safety of navigation from exactness of navigating the ship by the constrained route.

In work, the mathematical model of estimation of probability of the safe sailing of ship is represented in the limited terms taking into account descriptions of sailing directions and application of closeness of position error. The alternative method of estimation of probability of the safe sailing by the closeness of distributing of error of lateral declination of ship in relation to the programming trajectory of motion of ship in the limited directions is considered. The expression got in work for probability of the safe navigating takes into account description of narrow-mindedness of sailing directions, which is determined by the safe region of sailing. Shown dependence of probability of the safe sailing on the law of distributing of errors of lateral or sideway declination. With the purpose of estimation of probability of the accidental-free navigation in the directions set to straitened the developed procedures of formalization of basic his parameters. Influencing of laws of distributing of error of lateral declination on authenticity of the safe ship’s navigation is considered the constrained route. For realization of the offered method of estimation of probability of the accident-free navigation of ship by the set route in constrained waters, which uses the model of closeness of error of lateral declination the computer program was developed. It foresees three variants of task of route of wiring of ship, first from which allows to use one of five standard routes. Two other variants foresee the interactive forming of route of wiring, thus one of variants of forming of route of wiring foresees the use of electronic chart. By the imitation design comparison of two models of estimation of probability of wiring of ship is conducted by the set route, as a result of which the got conclusion about the identity of models. Upon completion of work description of forming of the inflicted route by an electronic card is resulted. The influence of the laws of the distribution of lateral deviation errors on the reliability of the safe navigation of the vessel by the constrained route is considered. To implement the proposed method of estimating the probability of an accident-free vessel posting by a specified route in constrained waters, a computer program was developed using a model of one-dimensional lateral deviation error density. It provides three options for specifying the route of the vessel, the first of which allows you to use one of the five standard routes. Two other options provide interactive formation of the route of posting, and one of the options for forming the route of posting involves the use of an electronic chart. The developed computer simulation program consisting of several modules allows you to perform the following tasks; with the help of the first module, the route formation of the vessel in the constrained navigation area is made; the choosing of the route of the vessel’s posting with the help of an electronic map is made using the third module of the simulation program. The paper proposes a more method for calculating a priori probability, in which the problem is formulated within the framework of a one-dimensional space using the one-dimensional error density of the lateral deviation of the vessel. The permissible safe navigation area is given by an analytical description of its boundaries. Using simulation modeling, a comparison of two-dimensional and onedimensional models for estimating the likelihood of a vessel to be navigated by a given route was made, as a result of which the conclusion obtained about model identity was obtained. For the practical application of the proposed method of estimating the likelihood of safe wiring of a vessel, it is necessary to form a real route of wiring a vessel in a restricted navigation area, which requires the use of electronic charts. At the end of the work, a description of the formation of the plotted route using an electronic chart is given. A qualitative indicator of the research results is the ability to a priori determine the safety level of navigation when sailing on the constrained route that the ship is planned to carry out, and reduce the impact of negative controlled factors. The reliability of the results of the thesis is confirmed by the correct development of mathematical models and their use, as well as the simulation carried out. The practical significance of the work is determined by the fact that the results of the study can be used on ships to determine the safety of the route, as well as the developers of navigation information systems. The results obtained in the work, both theoretical and practical, can be used in the process of training and advanced training of navigators.