Kuchvara O. Method and system of epidemiological research of acute respiratory diseases

The object of research is the epidemiological processes of influenza diseases and (acute respiratory viral infections) ARVI. The aim of the work is to increase the efficiency of forecasting the development of epidemiological studies on influenza and acute respiratory diseases by creating a method, models and systems. Methods of research: mathematical modeling, decision support, data processing, medical statistics and programming; the linearization method, the Lyapunov-Volterra function method, software development methods are based on the use of the UML language and the object-oriented programming language Java. Theoretical results: the combined imitational model for predicting and managing epidemiological processes of the spread of influenza and ARVI, as a combination of a compartmental stochastic model and a probabilistic cellular automaton, has been further developed, which allows to model the processes of spatial disease transfer. For the first time, a method for modeling the epidemiological processes of spatial distribution of ARVI in a temporarily distributed population is proposed, which uses a combined simulation model based on a stochastic experimental model with different strains of influenza virus, allows us to present the investigated epidemic system as a megopopulation with many elemental populations. Have been improved deterministic and stochastic models of the spread of influenza by presenting epidemiological processes as a random variable distributed according to the binomial law, provides an adequate reflection of the dynamics of the epidemic process relative to the absolute values of the volume of compartments and more realistic results compared to known models. The practical results are as follows: method and system were developed, on the basis of which complex object-oriented modeling was performed, software in the UML and Java languages was developed; improved decision support subsystem for predicting and managing epidemiological processes; was developed a Web-based integrated program environment for the study of infectious diseases and methods for its management through vaccination, containing a user-oriented software interface and an open library of relevant Java classes. Degree of implementation - the results of the thesis were introduced at the Ternopil State Medical University I.Ya. Gorbachevsky; at the Bukovinian State Medical University at the Department of Infectious Diseases; in the General Directorate of State Sanepid Service at Ternopil region. The domain (field) of application - medicine.