Kortsova O. Assessment and forecasting of industrial complexes impact on urbosystem atmospheric air state

In the thesis the results of scientific researches on development of methods and means of assessment and forecasting of industrial complexes impact on urbosystem atmospheric air state formed as a result of industrial complexes (IC) technogenic activity are demonstrated. The existing zoning method has been updated and unified justifying the allocation of the respective affected zones, namely: emission plume changeover, sanitary protection (SPZ), active pollution (APZ), maximum surface concentrations, admissible (maximum admissible) contamination. The method of marker substances (MS) determination for the conditions of atmosphere pollution level formation due to the activity of local industrial complexes is developed. The choice of the first MS order will allow to ascertain a fact that there is a significant contribution of the technosphere objects (industrial enterprises) to the level of negative affect on environmental component state (in this particular case it is air); the choice of the second MS order implements a classical scheme for the formation of significant pollution levels outside the industrial objects SPZ due to the contribution of powerful, high emission sources, the negative impact of which can be extended to vast areas; the choice of the third MP order implements the basic principle in assessing the conditions for environmental hazards formation, when a numerical group of similar industrial sources of insignificant power can form a pollution level which is higher than the one formed by main powerful sources. Algorithm for the method implementation is presented, which describes the procedure for MS selecting. The conditions of emission sources differentiation depending on the APZ linear size are determined. In general, the following scenario is implemented: "industrial complex → imposition of certain objects SPZ and APZ which are in its composition → emission sources aggregation → general impact assessment (MSI) → high sources determination → MSII definition → impact assessment of low sources aggregation → aggregation selection MSIII → priority sources → specific technological process». The implementation of this scenario is the basis for providing reasoned recommendations for IC object environmental safety improvement. The methods mentioned have been practically implemented while evaluating the peculiarities of harmful substances spatial distribution with the identification of potential pollution zones on the example of a local industrial complex the North industrial district of technogenically loaded Kremenchuk urbosystem. The model of recognition and determination degrees of criticality of environmental situations is developed, which is based on the application of the marker substances method and that, unlike the existing ones, has the differentiation of the knowledge database into two components. The first contains as antecedents indecipherable estimates of normalized values of marker substances parameters, the second one contains indecipherable estimates of the specified values of other substances and groups, which made it possible to establish rules for recognizing situation class and to ensure the production of relevant statements and recommendations. The process of diagnostic conclusion formation on the basis of expert assessment implements the stages of marker substances determination for given technological processes at objects of a specified industrial hub. The conceptual ontological model of emission sources identification based on the use of the marker substances determination method is developed. Implementation of this model will allow to identify emission sources that have a decisive contribution to the formation of the level of the current environmentally hazardous situation. A logical model and algorithm for selecting the location places of stationary and mobile monitoring stations based on a sectoral principle are developed. Description of the characteristics for determining the locations of monitoring stations, which as a whole allow to solve the problem of choosing a disposition place as for a stationary observation stations, which will take into account the sectoral impact of the local IC objects, and for mobile monitoring stations as well in order to provide a prompt response to the citizens' claims.