Stratonov V. The method of calculating the evacuation routes for the victims of an emergency airplane forced landing on water surface

The thesis is devoted to solving an actual scientific task associated with the necessity of developing the method aimed to minimize the time from the moment of a 20 forced landing on water surface till the moment of victims delivery to the specialized medical establishments. The aim of the research is achieved by means of the part-tasks listed below: the problem of aircraft forced landings on water surface analysis; Ukrainian water urfaces analysis; determination of the residential areas infrastructure elements suitability as for provision victims with assistance; determination of factors impact on ditching, evacuation and further survival effectiveness; optimization of the victims evacuation route from the ditching site to the place of special medical assistance provision; development of the method of victims evacuation routes calculation; the development of the model of decision making process as for the choice of the most efficient route for victims evacuation. The following methods of research have been used in our thesis: Graph theory (Dijkstra’s algorithm); observation, comparison and systematic analysis methods; expert assessment method; hierarchy analysis method; system analysis and interviewing; integer programming method. The scientific novelty of the results received in the study is as follows. The method of calculating the victims evacuation routes from the site of the emergency airplane forced landing on water surface has been further developed. his method, as distinct to other known ones, is based on the elaborated criteria of the most effective routes search with the application of the "Golden Hour" strategy, which allows minimizing the evacuation time and the number of fatalities. The model of the decision making process as for the most effective victims evacuation route during an emergency aircraft landing on water surface has been enhanced. This model differs from the other known ones by a developed criterion of victims evacuation sequence depending on severity of injuries and the type of medical establishments, which allows minimizing the number of fatalities. The method of the environmental and emergency aircraft landing conditions evaluation has been further developed. This method, as distinct to other known ones, pays due regard to the type, the weight and the contributing factors ignificance for survival rate during an emergency aircraft forced landing on water, which allows minimizing the evacuation time and the number of fatalities.