Dankevych N. Simulation model for the selection of organisational and technological solutions for construction projects

This manuscript is devoted to solving the actual scientific and applied problem of developing optimisation modeling of organisational and technological solutions ensuring the competitive ability of construction projects in an unstable market. These solutions use principles of system engineering and information technology. An analysis of the existing theoretical and applied approaches to essence of construction projects has determined that the problems of construction production have a systemic nature. They complement and mutually reinforce each other, therefore, for the implementation and analysis of construction projects in the conditions of market transformation, it is necessary to use the basic principles of systems engineering, which allow comprehensively substantiate decisions on investing in construction project. It has been analysed and researched the traditional models for the selection of organisational and technological solutions for construction project based on network modeling, probability theory, deterministic, stochastic and simulation modeling, as well as the theory of organisational and technological reliability in optimal programming problems. The author determines the influence of the probabilistic nature of the duration and cost on the assessment of the economic efficiency of the implementation of the investment project. The author of manuscript improved the economic and mathematical model and developed an algorithm based on statistical methods for analyzing two-dimensional random variables. It allows to generate a probabilistic distribution for the cost and duration of construction, to qualitatively and quantitatively determine the interaction on the construction course, in which a large number of interrelated random factors take part, and to determine the reliability of adopted organisational and technological decisions. The scientific and methodological results of manuscript were embodied in a set of software products and brought to the level of practical use in building companies of the construction branch of various structures and forms of ownership that operate in an unstable market. It allows them to evaluate the effectiveness of their projects and verify the reliability of organisational and technological decisions. Keywords: construction management, organisational and technological solutions, methods and models, network modeling and simulation, probability, two-dimensional random variable, effectiveness.