Novak Y. Modeling of organizational and technological parameters of construction under the influence of seasonal fluctuations

Thesis for a candidate degree in specialty 05.23.08 – technology and organization of industrial and civil construction. – Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture. – Kyiv, 2021. The present state, tendencies and preconditions of planning of parameters of construction in seasonality are analyzed. The review of the existing legislative and regulatory base, scientific works on technology and organization of construction in seasonality, the purpose and tasks of the research are determined, the preconditions and directions of improvement of the parameter forecasting system in concrete are determined seasonality. Showed that the influence of climatic factors on the timing of works has a moderate degree of influence. The basic ways of taking into account the parameters of concrete works at different stages of the investment-construction process are identified, which in turn determined the methodological basis and the course of further research. Taking into account the increase in cost of money, labor and time of completion of concreting works in the different conditions period is not according to the normative coefficients, but on the basis of the contractor-based base of similar objects will allow the contracting companies to more reasonably calculate the time of completion, complexity and time consuming. The state and modern organizational and technological decisions, methods and methods of concreting under the influence of seasonality at the present stage of development of science and technology are analyzed, the types of deviations of cost, complexity, terms of construction that arise due to conditions are determined. We propose and develop our own methodological approach to forecasting the parameters of concreting under the influence of seasonality, based on the use of seasonal decomposition of numbers. It is proved that the climatic conditions have a moderate influence on the construction time, which can be expressed in the form of seasonal fluctuations in the deviations of the course of the construction process or the supply of resources from the plan. Models have been created that take into account the seasonal component. The methodical approach of adjustment of parameters of construction concerning forecasting of changes of characteristics of performance of works under the influence of seasonal fluctuations is improved. It is proved that natural and climatic conditions have a mine effect on the construction time, which can be expressed in the form of seasonal quantities of deviations of the course of construction works. The main stages of forecasting and adjustment of separate organizational and technological parameters of construction under the influence of seasonal fluctuations are generally grounded. The first stage is the formation of a choice for correlation-regression analysis, and the final stage is the calculation and creation of special economic and functional functions for adjusting the characteristics of construction using the average linear error.