Ivanchenko D. Forecasting and medium-term planning of VAT in Ukraine

The dissertation is devoted to the analysis of theoretical principles and issues of practical improvement of forecasting and medium - term planning of VAT revenues and the development of an appropriate system of measures for their implementation in Ukraine. The paper provides a comprehensive study of the economic principles of VAT in the context of identifying its elements, on the basis of which can be carried out medium-term forecasting and planning. The economic essence of forecasting and budget planning of value added tax is examined to identify its "stable" in the medium term elements. The international experience of collecting value added tax within the system of medium-term budget planning and possibilities of application of progressive practices of VAT functioning is analyzed. The normative-legal bases of functioning and also the methods of forecasting and planning of VAT are systematized, the assessment of fiscal efficiency of VAT in Ukraine is carried out. The macrofinancial risks that affect VAT revenues in the medium term are studied and recommendations for the development of a risk-oriented system of medium-term VAT forecasting are developed. The methodology of medium-term VAT forecasting has been improved and the ways of transformation of the VAT functioning mechanism in the context of increasing the reliability of forecast and planned indicators have been substantiated. It is shown that at the present stage in conditions of high volatility of economic processes in Ukraine, the need to develop an effective forecasting system and medium-term VAT planning, it is advisable to combine methods of econometric modeling, analytical methods and methods of expert evaluation. Also, taking into account the presence of a number of objective and subjective factors that affect the amount of VAT revenues, the need to build a risk-based forecasting system and medium-term planning of VAT revenues is justified.